Storm Risk Assessment of Interdependent Infrastructure Networks

Project leader

Prof Richard Dawson

Dates

March 2016 to September 2017

Project staff

Prof Hayley Fowler

Dr Sean Wilkinson

Dr Nicolas Kirchner-Bossi

Despite their importance, future risks associated with windstorm disruptions are uncertain. The coarse spatial resolution of climate models renders them unable to represent wind storm processes.

STRAIN addressed two challenges for infrastructure operators and stakeholders. They wanted to understand and mitigate wind related risks in their pursuit to deliver more reliable services:

1. Build state-of-the-art modelling and analysis capabilities. This assesses the vulnerability of electricity networks and engineering assets to high winds.
• This challenge considered the impact of different extreme wind events. The events are across different parts of the electricity network. This includes households and businesses connected to the network. The project applied a model representing interconnections. The model helped to understand the potential impact on other infrastructures requiring electricity. The infrastructures include road, rail and water systems.
2. Climate models provide very uncertain wind projections. Infrastructure operators need an understanding of future climate change. This allows them to develop long-term asset management strategies.
• The project worked with the Met Office. It benefited from new high resolution simulations of future wind climate using a 1.5km climate model. These simulations have proven capable of representing convective storm processes. The storm processes drive many storms across the UK. Modelling them has already proven that they better capture extreme rainfall events. The project applied these methods to a case study of an electricity distribution network. The distribution network is more vulnerable to windstorms than the high voltage national transmission network.

STRAIN synthesised and translated cutting-edge research for electricity distribution network operators. This provided them with a much better understanding of wind risks, both now and in the long-term. This will:

• Improve the reliability of electricity supply to UK consumers. This includes other infrastructure providers reliant on electricity distribution networks.
• Reduce costs by enabling more effective allocation of investments in adaptation and asset management.

It will also help other infrastructure service providers to better understand the impacts of electricity disruption on their own systems. This assists them in planing for disruptions.

This improves understanding of future extreme wind storms and provides extra benefits. These benefits apply to an even wider group of infrastructure and built environment stakeholders.