Caroline Taylor

About Caroline

Project description

Glacial lakes are a major natural hazard. Dam failure can lead to the sudden release of water and sediment known as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), causing significant downstream and transnational implications.

GLOF risk is a function of:

• hazard - the glacial lakes
• exposure - people and infrastructure likely to be impacted
• vulnerability - the ability of the exposed populations to cope with impacts

Globally since 1990, glacial lakes have grown rapidly in response to atmospheric driven deglaciation. At the same time the exposure of populations and infrastructure to GLOF hazards in high-mountain regions has increased and vulnerability also changed.

Despite this, few GLOF studies have integrated all three elements (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) into risk assessments. As well as this, the global distribution of GLOF risk has never been quantified, nor has the role of these elements on driving GLOF risk been evaluated.

This project aims to quantify the spatial and temporal variation in GLOF risk at a global scale for the first time. The roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as GLOF risk drivers will also be assessed.

This will be achieved through quantitative analysis using a range of remote sensing and open-access data.

By identifying high risk regions and determining risk drivers at the regional, national, and basin scale, this work could help refine disaster risk reduction strategies, direct mitigation efforts, and prevent future GLOF disasters.

Publications

Taylor, C., Robinson, T.R., Dunning, S. et al. Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally. Nat Commun 14, 487 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x

Taylor, C., Robinson, T.R., Dunning, S. et al. The rise of glacial lake outburst flood danger: trends, drivers, and hotspots between 2000 and 2020. Earth’s Future (In review)