New Scientist

Researchers recognised by New Scientist for work on Oak Processionary Moth (OPM) survey

Researchers recognised by New Scientist for work on oak processionary moth survey 

Work led by Research Associate Dr Laura Wadkin has been featured in an article by New Scientist (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2302003-tougher-action-needed-to-stop-oak-killing-moths-spread-in-the-uk/).  Researchers from the School of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics (Dr Laura Wadkin, Dr Andy Golightly, Dr Nick Parker, and Dr Andrew Baggaley) collaborated with forestry researchers from the governmental Oak Processionary Moth Control programme (including Andrew Hoppit from the Forestry Commission and Dr Julia Branson from the University of Southampton).  

Oak processionary moth (OPM) is a key invasive pest of concern in the UK, causing deforestation of oak trees and leaving them vulnerable to other diseases and pests. Since its accidental importation in 2006, the infestation of OPM has continued to spread. Using a compartmental mathematical model and statistical inference scheme, the team were able to quantify the properties of this spread and show that the infestation rate has remained constant since 2013.  

Dr Wadkin says, “By inferring the parameters for a susceptible-infected-removed model with a time varying infection rate, we were able to show that although the current control measures are having some effect, more is required to stop OPM spreading further”. 

The work is available as a pre-print (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.09.471950v2).