Staff Profile

Interests

Keywords: Landslides; magnitude-frequency; geomorphology; risk reduction; hazard cascades

I am a quantitative physical geographer researching hillslope processes and cascading hazards. As a geographer I maintain an active interest in the links between hazard and risk, with an applied focus on how we can reduce risks usign monitoring and modelling.

My current research interests are:

• Hazard cascades in mountainous terrain: GLOFs, ice-rock avalanches
• Supraglacial landslide detection and tracking
• Landslide and moraine dam stability, and the resulting landslide-dam outburst and glacial-lake outburst floods (LSOF / GLOF)
• Low-cost streaming monitoring systems to both warn of increased landslide threats, and, to detect in near real-time landslides occurring 

To find out more about current projects please click on the Research tab above and the Publications tab.

Current Projects

1. Chamoli. SUPERSLUG: Deconstructing sediment superslugs as a legacy of extreme flows (NERC PtF)

On 7th February 2021 a massive rock-ice avalanche originating from a mountain ridge in Chamoli District, Uttarakhand, Indian Himalaya, transformed into a fast-moving and catastrophic debris flow which travelled along the Rishiganga, Dhauliganga, and Alaknanda rivers. The flow killed hundreds of people, destroyed or damaged mature and under-construction hydropower projects, and caused severe modification to the channel and wider valley floor landscape, including the destabilising of steep valley sides. Once the flood subsided, rapid post-event analysis revealed that sediments deposited by the debris flow were more than 20 m thick in places, and that the flow was capable of transporting boulders exceeding 20 m in diameter. SUPERSLUG will push the frontiers of scientific knowledge and technical innovation to reveal new fundamental insights into the legacies of catastrophic sediment-rich flows (SRF) in mountain landscapes, such as landslides, rock-ice avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods. Catastrophic SRFs are hypothesised to become more frequent this century due to climate warming, and often affect vulnerable communities and assets in least developed countries the most. SRFs can entrain, mobilise, and deposit vast quantities of sediment, which can blanket valley floors to depths of tens of metres. The subsequent re-working and transport of these sediments by rivers can generate large-scale and fast-moving 'superslugs', which is a so-called 'legacy' impact of an SRF. Such legacy impacts are poorly understood, mostly due to observational challenges which have persisted for over a hundred years. However, improving our understanding of these impacts is of vital importance: enhanced fluvial transport of sediment following an SRF can affect flood hazard (by altering river channel bed elevation), infrastructure (e.g. by scouring bridge footings and damaging hydropower turbines), and can disrupt water quality, reducing water and energy security in regions that experience increasingly unstable and hazardous hydrological regimes. With SUPERSLUG we seek to encourage a paradigm shift framed around our argument that the landscape legacies of catastrophic SRFs should be quantified in as much detail as an initial event. To do this we will springboard from recent UKRI-funded pilot work by our international team to develop and apply a new multi-method and widely applicable suite of tools for quantifying the geomorphological evolution of SRF-affected catchments over multi-decade timeframes that are relevant for decision makers, in turn generating new insights into the fundamental behaviour, and impacts, of sediment superslugs. We will focus on a ~150 km-long exemplar system in the Indian Himalaya that has recently experienced a catastrophic SRF; the so-called 'Chamoli disaster'. This catchment arguably represents the most data-rich landscape of its type globally and sits within an otherwise extremely data-poor region. To deconstruct the evolution and impacts of sediment superslugs we will implement five work packages which will: (WP1) benchmark the geomorphological and sedimentological evolution of an SRF-affected system in space and time by using drone-derived observations to upscale from local- to catchment-wide observations using satellite remote sensing; (WP2) directly measure bedload motion in SRF-affected river channels using innovative wireless 'smart' cobbles, complemented with passive seismics; (WP3) develop an open-source toolkit for detecting and tracking fine-grained superslugs by leveraging cloud-based (Google Earth Engine) processing of free satellite imagery; and (WP4) integrate our novel observations from WP1-3 to upscale a powerful numerical landscape evolution-hydrodynamic model to simulate superslug mobility and the wider geomorphological evolution of our exemplar catchment. Our calibrated model, which will be a form of 'digital twin', will represent the largest of its kind and we will use it to explore catchment management decisions (e.g. HEP flushing schedules) for mitigating the worst superslug impacts. Underpinning these four WPs is a fifth WP, wherein we will adopt a Theory of Change-based approach for engaging closely with beneficiaries of this new knowledge and associated tools to translate our findings into practical outcomes and impact, including governance and disaster management professionals, hydropower operators and the wider international academic community.

2. Landslides in the U.K.

Over the past 5 years I have obtained funds to undertake high resolution monitoring of landslides that threaten the U.K. road and rail network (NERC Urgency; NERC Constructing a Digital Environment; Scottish Roads Research Board; Research England 'Pitch-In')

NERC CDE: Landslide Mitigation Informatics (LIMIT): Effective decision-making for complex landslide geohazards.

Landslides or the threat of landslides can cause significant economic disruption and pose a risk to life. Relatively small events can affect wide areas, particularly where the primary road network is sparse and there is limited scope for rerouting and diversion. Rainfall triggers the majority of landslides in the U.K. and national level 24-hr forecasts exist (for emergency response agencies), but there is uncertainty surrounding what combination(s) of duration and intensity trigger slope failures on a site specific level and why similar events do not always lead to the same event/no-event outcome. These knowledge gaps are critical where decisions must actively be made to warn users of (or close) linear infrastructure such as roads and rail in order to saves lives and costs. This lack of specificity, combined with the high costs of traditionally instrumenting known 'at risk' locations, hinders effective decision-making for key authorities and their partners. As a result many essential components of the environment are not monitored in advance, or on a wide-scale / high-resolution (spatial and temporal) basis. LIMIT will make use of and develop the next generation of low-cost and low-power integrated network (and networks of networks) sensors combined with edge processing and multi-threshold trigger based streaming of key data in near real-time to allow decisions underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics. The result is low cost, wide coverage provision of data that analyses the state of the environment and forecasts future behaviour at higher spatial and temporal resolutions than previously possible, integrated into a seamless 'data chain' from site to decision-makers. Data and key derivations based on fundamental process science are automatically ingested/shared into a newly constructed digital environment via an intelligent hierarchical platform. The outputs are fit for national data sets and modelling; policy makers deciding on sensor networks for monitoring evolving risk due to long-term environmental changes; operational decision-makers tasked with real-time management of acute threats to life; right though to data provision and two-way engagement with the individuals at risk. Innovative low-cost, in situ near real-time data streaming/processing sensors resiliently linked to an integrated portal with automated reporting offers a viable and transformative solution to end-user challenges. The LIMIT feasibility study will generate new field validated intelligent monitoring informatics, underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics, to provide critical data on the increasing likelihood and then the occurrence of slope failures in real-time.

3. Landslides onto and into glaciers (EPSRC IAA)

Slope processes play a significant role in sediment delivery to ice; a role of increasing importance as landscapes transition between glacierised and ice-free configurations. Landslide magnitude-frequency (m-f) which dictates the erosion of land exposed above ice surfaces (landslides, not glaciers, reduce peak height above ice) and the resultant sediment flux through the glacier-route-way is poorly quantified, particularly when the debris is entrained and transported en- and sub-glacially and re-emerges (altered or unaltered) in the ablation zones. Crucially, we have been unable to elucidate climate change-driven perturbations in m-f due to the sparsity and incompleteness of existing datasets and the absence of a thorough analysis of the suite of relevant environmental drivers. Estimates of the flux from landslides onto ice range from just a few percent to 60% of total glacial sediment flux.

We hypothesise that landslides in the Arctic and Antarctic deliver significant quantities of sediment including bioavailable iron (BioFe), silica, and nitrogen to the Oceans. 

I am the module lead for GE03144 Landslides and contribute to hillslope processes, glaciers and risk teaching at each level of the Geography degree from Stage 1 to the MRes.

• Articles

  • Perks MT, Pitman SJ, Bainbridge R, Diaz-Moreno A, Dunning SA. An Evaluation of Low-Cost Terrestrial Lidar Sensors for Assessing Hydrogeomorphic Change. Earth and Space Science 2024, 11(8), e2024EA003514.
  • Smith WD, Dunning SA, Ross N, Telling J, Jensen EK, Shugar DH, Coe JA, Geertsema M. Revising supraglacial rock avalanche magnitudes and frequencies in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Geomorphology 2023, 425, 108591.
  • Westoby MJ, Dunning SA, Carrivick JL, Coulthard TJ, Sain K, Kumar A, Berthier E, Haritashya UK, Shean DE, Azam MF, Upadhyay K, Koppes M, McCourt HR, Shugar DH. Rapid fluvial remobilization of sediments deposited by the 2021 Chamoli disaster, Indian Himalaya. Geology 2023, 51(10), 924-928.
  • Rinzin S, Zhang G, Sattar A, Wangchuk S, Allen SK, Dunning S, Peng M. GLOF Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment of Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya. Journal of Hydrology 2023, 619, 129311.
  • Taylor C, Robinson T, Dunning S, Carr JR, Westoby M. Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally. Nature Communications 2023, 14, 487.
  • Bainbridge R, Lim M, Dunning S, Winter MG, Diaz-Moreno A, Martin J, Torun H, Sparkes B, Khan MW, Jin N. Detection and forecasting of shallow landslides: lessons from a natural laboratory. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk 2022, 13(1), 686-704.
  • Zhao C, Yang W, Westoby M, An B, Wu G, Wang W, Wang Z, Wang Y, Dunning S. Brief communication: An approximately 50 Mm3 ice-rock avalanche on 22 March 2021 in the Sedongpu valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The Cryosphere 2022, 16(4), 1333-1340.
  • Woodward J, Hein AS, Winter K, Westoby MJ, Marrero SM, Dunning SA, Lim M, Rivera A, Sugden DE. Blue-ice moraines formation in the Heritage Range, West Antarctica: Implications for ice sheet history and climate reconstruction. Quaternary Science Advances 2022, 6, 100051.
  • Fan X, Dufresne A, Whiteley J, Yunus AP, Subramanian SS, Okeke CAU, Pánek T, Hermanns RL, Ming P, Strom A, Havenith HB, Dunning S, Wang G, Tacconi Stefanelli C. Recent technological and methodological advances for the investigation of landslide dams. Earth-Science Reviews 2021, 218, 103646.
  • Khan MW, Dunning S, Bainbridge R, Martin J, Diaz-Moreno A, Torun H, Jin N, Woodward J, Lim M. Low-Cost Automatic Slope Monitoring Using Vector Tracking Analyses on Live-Streamed Time-Lapse Imagery. Remote Sensing 2021, 13(5), 893.
  • Shugar DH, Jacquemart M, Shean D, Bhushan S, Upadhyay K, Sattar A, Schwanghart W, McBride S, de Vries MVW, Mergili M, Emmer A, Deschamps-Berger C, McDonnell M, Bhambri R, Allen S, Berthier E, Carrivick JL, Clague JJ, Dokukin M, Dunning SA, Frey H, Gascoin S, Haritashya UK, Huggel C, Kääb A, Kargel JS, Kavanaugh JL, Lacroix P, Petley D, Rupper S, Azam MF, Cook SJ, Dimri AP, Eriksson M, Farinotti D, Fiddes J, Gnyawali KR, Harrison S, Jha M, Koppes M, Kumar A, Leinss S, Majeed U, Mal S, Muhuri A, Noetzli J, Paul F, Rashid I, Sain K, Steiner J, Ugalde F, Watson CS, Westoby MJ. A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. Science 2021, 373(6552), 300-306.
  • Fan X, Dufresne A, Subramanian SS, Strom A, Hermanns R, Stefanelli CT, Hewitt K, Yunus AP, Dunning S, Capra L, Geertsema M, Miller B, Casagli N, Jansen JD, Xu Q. The formation and impact of landslide dams – State of the art. Earth-Science Reviews 2020, 203, 103116.
  • Smith WD, Dunning SA, Brough S, Ross N, Telling J. GERALDINE (Google earth Engine supRaglAciaL Debris INput dEtector): A new tool for identifying and monitoring supraglacial debris inputs. Earth Surface Dynamics 2020, 8, 1053-1065.
  • Winter K, Woodward J, Ross N, Dunning SA, Hein AS, Westoby MJ, Culberg R, Marrero SM, Schroeder DM, Sugden DE, Siegert MJ. Radar-detected englacial debris in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Geophysical Research Letters 2019, 46(17-18), 10454-10462.
  • Harrison D, Ross N, Russell AJ, Dunning SA. Post-jökulhlaup geomorphic evolution of the Gígjökull Basin, Iceland. Annals of Glaciology 2019, 60(80), 127-137.
  • Pfeifer A, Boyle MJW, Dunning S, Olivier PI. Forest floor temperature and greenness link significantly to canopy attributes in South Africa’s fragmented coastal forests. PeerJ 2019, 7, e6190.
  • Benjamin J, Rosser NJ, Dunning SA, Hardy RJ, Kelfoun K, Szczucinski W. Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 2018, 43(15), 3057-3073.
  • Sugden DE, Hein AS, Woodward J, Marrero SM, Rodes A, Dunning SA, Stuart FM, Freeman SPHT, Winter K, Westoby MJ. Corrigendum to “The million-year evolution of the glacial trimline in the southernmost Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica” [Earth and Planetary Science Letters 469 (2017) 42–52]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2018, 502, 291-292.
  • Marrero SM, Hein AS, Naylor M, Attal M, Shanks R, Winter K, Woodward J, Dunning S, Westoby M, Sugden D. Controls on subaerial erosion rates in Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2018, 501, 56-66.
  • Sugden DE, Hein AS, Woodward J, Marrero SM, Rodes A, Dunning SA, Stuart FM, Freeman SPHT, Winter K, Westoby MJ. The million-year evolution of the glacial trimline in the southernmost Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2017, 469, 42-52.
  • Dufresne A, Dunning SA. Process dependence of grain size distributions in rock avalanche deposits. Landslides 2017, 14(5), 1555-1563.
  • Kirkham JD, Rosser NJ, Wainwright J, Vann-Jones EC, Dunning SA, Lane VS, Hawthorn DE, Strzelecki MC, Szczucinski W. Drift-dependent changes in iceberg size-frequency distributions. Scientific Reports 2017, 7, 15991.
  • Hein AS, Marrero SM, Woodward J, Dunning SA, Winter K, Westoby MJ, Freeman SPHT, Shanks RP, Sugden DE. Mid-Holocene pulse of thinning in the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature Communications 2016, 7, 12511.
  • Westoby MJ, Dunning SA, Woodward J, Hein AS, Marrero SM, Winter K, Sugden DE. Interannual surface evolution of an Antarctic blue-ice moraine using multi-temporal DEMs. Earth Surface Dynamics 2016, 4, 515-529.
  • Hein S, Woodward J, Marrero SM, Dunning SA, Steig EJ, Freeman SPHT, Stuart FM, Winter K, Westoby MJ, Sugden DE. Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years. Nature Communications 2016, 7, 10325.
  • Winter K, Woodward J, Dunning SA, Turney C, Fogwill C, Hein AS, Golledge NR, Bingham RG, Marrero S, Sugden DE, Ross N. Assessing the continuity of the blue ice climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 2016, 43(5), 2019-2026.
  • Westoby MJ, Dunning SA, Woodward J, Hein AS, Marrero SM, Winter K, Sugden DE. Sedimentological characterization of Antarctic moraines using UAVs and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry. Journal of Glaciology 2015, 61(230), 1088-1102.
  • Dunning SA, Rosser NJ, McColl ST, Reznichenko NV. Rapid sequestration of rock avalanche deposits within glaciers. Nature Communications 2015, 6, 7964.
  • Lim M, Dunning SA, Burke M, King H, King N. Quantification and implications of change in organic carbon bearing coastal dune cliffs: a multiscale analysis from the Northumberland coast, U.K. Remote Sensing of Environment 2015, 163, 1-12.
  • Harrison LM, Dunning SA, Woodward J, Davies TRH. Post rock-avalanche dam outburst flood sedimentation in Ram Creek, Southern Alps, New Zealand. Geomorphology 2015, 241, 135-144.
  • Winter K, Woodward J, Ross N, Dunning SA, Bingham RG, Corr HFJ, Siegert MJ. Airborne radar evidence for tributary flow switching in Institute Ice Stream, West Antarctica: implications for ice sheet configuration and dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 2015, 120(9), 1611–1625.
  • Weidinger JT, Korup O, Munack H, Altenberger U, Dunning SA, Tippelt G, Lottermoser W. Giant rockslides from the inside. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2014, 389, 62-73.
  • Dunning SA, Large ARG, Russell AJ, Roberts MJ, Duller R, Woodward J, Mériaux A-S, Tweed FS, Lim M. The role of multiple glacial outburst floods in proglacial landscape evolution: The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland. Geology 2013, 41(10), 1123-1126.
  • Rosser N, Lim M, Petley D, Dunning S, Allison R. Patterns of precursory rockfall prior to slope failure. Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface 2007, 112(4), F04014.
  • Rosser NJ, Petley DN, Lim M, Dunning SA, Allison RJ. Terrestrial laser scanning for monitoring the process of hard rock coastal cliff erosion. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology & Hydrogeology 2005, 38(4), 363-375.

• Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

  • Rosser NJ, Petley DN, Dunning SA, Lim M, Ball S. The surface expression of strain accumulation in failing rock masses. In: Proceedings of the 1st Canada-US Rock Mechanics Symposium - Rock Mechanics Meeting Society's Challenges and Demands. 2007, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

• Report

  • Sparkes B, Dunning SA, Lim M, Winter MG. Monitoring and Modelling of Landslides in Scotland Characterisation of Slope Geomorphological Activity and the Debris Flow Geohazard. Wokingham: Transport Research Laboratories, 2018. PPR852.