Modelling, Evidence & Policy - Staff List

I am a qualitative ecologist interested in the interrelation between scientific research, the available evidence base and decision making and look for opportunities to use modelling approaches to support this. I have built a broad research portfolio around understanding, quantifying, and communicating uncertainty to address questions of national and global policy importance. I am particularly focussed on improving our understanding and management of invasive species and emergent wildlife and human diseases. 

My research career has developed while working alongside government scientists on policy topics which has given me insight into the challenges of evidence-based decision making where data are lacking, resources are low and uncertainty is high. Making the correct decision is often very challenging, especially in systems where there are a great number of unknowns or uncertainty associated. Modelling approaches to inform decision making, such as adaptive management frameworks, exist but we have shown these are not used to their full potential and there is scope to improve our ‘learning by doing’.

Our invasive species management research has developed prioritisation frameworks for species management that has been used in multiple countries, informed national policy on pathway prioritisation and contributed to our understanding of species spread, impacts and management costs. Species invasions continue to increase globally and are among the top five causes of biodiversity loss by the International Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), so these research outputs and tools will contribute to the ability of nations to meet Kumming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets on invasion management. Critical to working at the interface between science and implementation is improved communication around data requirements and interpretation of scientific outputs. Through partnership working we have developed interactive online tools, integrating empirical evidence and modelling to explore management scenarios to inform decision-making.

I am a fellow of Newcastle Universities Policy Academy (2018), a programme which provides training in policy processes and landscape. I am particularly motivated by the integration of scientific research and evidence into policy and have worked with multiple government agencies (CEFAS, FERA, APHA, Natural England, Natural Resources Wales and Scottish Government). I am the invited faculty representative on the University Policy Engagement Group providing strategic guidance on the knowledge-implementation gap and to increase engagement between academics and local, regional and national policy networks.

I am an active member of the member of IUCN Invasive Species Specialist Group and serve on a number of advisory committees

Joint Advisory Committee for Lindisfarne National Nature Reserve

Scottish Beaver Strategy - Research and Innovation sub group (Chair)

Technical Advisory Group - Uist Wader project (Chair)

Scientific Advisory Committee for NatureScot (2018-22)

Scientific Advisory Committee for the Mammal Society

Current Projects

EU LIFE (2021- 2026): WADER Water and Disturbance Environmental Restoration Project

Food Standard Agency (2022-26): IID3 Infectious Intestinal Diseases. Modelling food-bourne pathogens

Recent Projects

Natural England/NatureScot/Natural Resources Wales/ Environment Agency Partnership project 2023-24. Development of a Landscape population model App for beaver translocations.

NatureScot 2021-23: Modelling Beaver Reintroductions and Management

Natural England 2021-22: Landscape Population Models for Dormouse Conservation

BBSRC (2018-2022): Host-pathogen interactions important in the movement of Campylobacter jejuni from the broiler chicken gut to edible tissues (CampAttack)

BBSRC (2017): Broiler gut health and C. jejuni infection; impacts of harvest management

EU LIFE 14 / Heritage Lottery Fund (2015-2020): Red Squirrels United

Natural England: Novel control methods of an invasive weed. Pirri-pirri burr

Defra Darwin Initative (2017): Responding to fish extripations in the global marine biodiversity epicentre

Modelling Evidence and Policy Research Group

We are a team of scientists with interests in modelling complex biological and socio-ecological systems international experts in the use of scientific evidence to influence policy making and decision making.

Current Postgraduate Supervision:

• Amar Rajgor (2023-) NIHR Radiomics-risk model for larynx cancer(AIRSPACE) 
• Ruth Wright (2023-) NERC ( IAPETUS DTP) Understanding public awareness, attitudes and perceptions of invasive non-native species and their management.
• Sari Sari (2023- ) Indonesia’s Ornamental Coral; Mariculture Techniques Improvement and Adaptation to Climate Change 
• Jack Hardman (2021- ) Leverhulme Trust. Movement Ecology of Vervet Monkeys
• Lizzie Keen (2021- ) NERC (IAPETUS DTP) Impacts and management of Impatiens glandulifera (Himalysan balsam) in ancient woodlands
• Ruben del la Torre Cerro (2021- ) Unravelling the drivers of coral reproductive phenology and synchrony.
• Benjamin Marshall (2020-) NERC (IAPETUS DTP)

Recent PhD Students:

• Adrian Bach (2023) NERC (IAPETUS DTP). Agent-based modelling to improve management strategy evaluation in complex problems of biodiversity conservation.
• Imogen Cavadino (2023) Royal Horticultural Society. Garden Gastropods – Slug and snail diversity in UK gardens
• Tina Skinner (2020) Role of apex predators in tropical ecosystems connectivity.
• Jess Ward (2020) Modelling Sociality in Carnivores.
• Olaf Booy (2019) funded by APHA. Predicting the future invasive non-native species in Great Britain – the role of invasion pathways.
• Jessica Duffill-Telsnig (2019) NERC Case Studentship (CEFAS, Simon Jennings). Modelling Benthic - Pelagic coupling.
• Inaki Deza-Cruz (2018) Joint candidature with Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine, St Kitts. Epidemiology of Dengue Fever and Chickungyna.
• Kirsty Lees (2018) Movement Ecology using Underwater Telemetry.
• Alexander Khan (2018). Indonesian Tuna fisheries.
• Simone Mordue (2017) funded by Defra. Natterer's bat Myotis Natterreri foraging, habitat use and roosting behaviour.
• Fabrice Stephenson (2016) Supported by Natural England. Benthic habitat/potfishing interactions.
• Wahyu Nugraha (2016) Macroecology of Caribbean Parrotfish
• Zelda Van der Waal (2013) funded by the Environment Agency. Population biology of salmon (Salmo salar) and sea trout (Salmo trutta) in the River Tyne: using modelling to understand the factors influencing migration patterns.

• Quantitative Ecological Research Skills (NES8010)

• Articles

  • Rajgor AD, Kui C, McQueen A, Cowley J, Gillespie C, Mill A, Rushton S, Obara B, Bigirumurame T, Kallas K, O'Hara J, Aboagye E, Hamilton DW. CT-based radiomic markers are independent prognosticators of survival in advanced laryngeal cancer: A pilot study. Journal of Laryngology and Otology 2023, 138(1), 685-691.
  • Bach A, Minderman J, Bunnefeld N, Mill AC, Duthie AB. Intervene or wait? A model evaluating the timing of intervention in conservation conflicts adaptive management under uncertainty. Ecology and Society 2022, 27(3), 3.
  • Robertson PA, Mill AC, Adriaens T, Moore N, Vanderhoeven S, Essl F, Booy O. Risk management assessment improves the cost-effectiveness of invasive species prioritisation. Biology 2021, 10(12), 1320.
  • Mordue S, Aegerter J, Mill A, Dawson DA, Crepaldi C, Wolff K. Population structure, gene flow and relatedness of Natterer's bats in Northern England. Mammalian Biology 2021, 101, 233-247.
  • Skinner C, Mill AC, Fox MD, Newman SP, Zhu Y, Kuhl A, Polunin NVC. Offshore pelagic subsidies dominate carbon inputs to coral reef predators. Science Advances 2021, 7(8), eabf3792.
  • Booy O, Robertson PA, Moore N, Ward J, Roy H, Adriaens T, Shaw D, Van Valkenburg J, Wyn G, Bertolino S, Blight O, Branquart E, Brundu G, Caffery J, Capazzi D, Caesar J, De Clerck O, Coughlan P, Davis P, Dick J, Essl F, Fried G, Genovesi P, Gonzalez-Moreno P, Hysentruyt F, Jenkins S, Katsanevakis S, Kerckhof F, Lucy F, Nentwig W, Newman J, Rabitsch W, Roy S, Starfinger U, Stebbing P, Stuyck J, Sutton-croft M, Tricarico E, Vanderhoeven S, Verreycken H, Mill AC. Using structured eradication feasibility assessment to prioritise the management of new and emerging invasive alien species in Europe. Global Change Biology 2020, 26(11), 6235-6250.
  • Ward AI, Richardson S, Mcarthur R, Mill AC. Using and communicating uncertainty for the effective control of invasive non‐native species. Mammal Review 2020, 50(2), 211-220.
  • Jaric I, Courchamp F, Correia RA, Crowley SL, Essl F, Fisher A, Gonzalez-Moreno P, Kalinkatt G, Lambin X, Lenzner B, Meinard Y, Mill AC, Musseau C, Novoa A, Pergl J, Pysek P, Pyskova K, Robertson P, von Schmalensee M, Shackleton R, Stefansson RA, Stajerova K, Verissimo D, Jeschke JM. The role of species charisma in biological invasions. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2020, 18(6), 345-353.
  • Skinner C, Mill AC, Newman SP, Alsagoff SN, Polunin NVC. The importance of oceanic atoll lagoons for coral reef predators. Marine Biology 2020, 167(2), 19.
  • Mill AC, Crowley SL, Lambin X, McKinney C, Maggs G, Robertson P, Robinson NJ, Ward AI, Marzano M. The challenges of long-term invasive mammal management: lessons from the UK. Mammal Review 2020, 50(2), 136-146.
  • Khan A, Mill A, Gray T, Jiang M, Arief H, Brown A, Karman A, Polunin N. Reliability of the data on tuna catches obtained from the dockside in Indonesia: A study of stakeholders' perceptions. Marine Policy 2020, 122, 104242.
  • Pergl P, Pysek P, Essl F, Jeschke JM, Courchamp F, Geist J, Hejda M, Kowarik I, Mill AC, Musseau C, Pipek P, Saul WC, von Schmalansee M, Strayer D. Need for routine tracking of biological invasions. Conservation Biology 2020, 34(5), 1311-1314.
  • Cowan D, van der Waal Z, Pidcock S, Gomm M, Stephens N, Brash M, White PCL, Mair L, Mill A. Adaptive management of an iconic invasive goat Capra hircus population. Mammal Review 2020, 50(2), 180-186.
  • Robertson PA, Mill A, Novoa A, Jeschke JM, Essl F, Gallardo B, Geist J, Jaric I, Lambin X, Musseau C, Pergle J, Pysek P, Rabitsch W, von Schmalensee M, Shirley M, Strayer DL, Stefansson RA, Smith K, Booy O. A proposed unified framework to describe the management of biological invasions. Biological Invasions 2020, 22, 2633-2645.
  • Knight J, Ayyash K, Colling K, Dhesi J, Ewan V, Danjoux G, Kothmann E, Mill A, Taylor S, Yates D, Ayyash R. A cohort study investigating the relationship between patient reported outcome measures and pre-operative frailty in patients with operable, non-palliative colorectal cancer. BMC Geriatrics 2020, 20(1), 311.
  • Khan A, Rizal A, Dewanti LP, Apriliani IM, Junianto, Supriyadi D, Ghiffary W, Nasution AM, Gray TS, Mill AC, Polunin NVC. Skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) tuna pole-and-line marketing supply chains in Indonesia: Case study in Pulau Bacan. AACL Bioflux 2019, 12(2), 636-641.
  • Skinner C, Newman SP, Mill AC, Newton J, Polunin NVC. Prevalence of pelagic dependence among coral reef predators across an atoll seascape. Journal of Animal Ecology 2019, 88(10), 1564-1574.
  • Skinner C, Mill AC, Newman SP, Newton J, Cobain MRD, Polunin NVC. Novel tri-isotope ellipsoid approach reveals dietary variation in sympatric predators. Ecology and Evolution 2019, 9(23), 13267-13277.
  • Duffill Telsnig J, Jennings S, Mill A, Walker N, Parnell A, Polunin NVC. Estimating contributions of pelagic and benthic pathways to consumer production in coupled marine food webs. Journal of Animal Ecology 2019, 88(3), 405-415.
  • Deza-Cruz I, Mill A, Rushton S, Kelly P. Comparison of the Use of Serum and Plasma as Matrix Specimens in a Widely Used Noncommercial Dengue IgG ELISA. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2019, 101(2), 456-458.
  • Everest DJ, Tolhurst-Cherriman DA, Davies H, Dastjerdi A, Ashton A, Blackett T, Meredith AL, Milne E, Mill A, Shuttleworth CM. Assessing a potential non-invasive method for viral diagnostic purposes in European squirrels. Hystrix 2019, 30(1), 44-50.
  • Mair L, Mill AC, Robertson PA, Rushton SP, Shirley MDF, Rodriguez JP, McGowan PJK. The contribution of scientific research to conservation planning. Biological Conservation 2018, 223, 82-96.
  • Lees KJ, Mill AC, Skerritt DJ, Robertson PA, Fitzsimmons C. Movement patterns of a commercially important, free-ranging marine invertebrate in the vicinity of a bait source. Animal Biotelemetry 2018, 6(1).
  • Blackett TA, Simpson VR, Haugland S, Everest DJ, Muir CF, Smith KC, Mill AC. Mortalities, amyloidosis and other diseases in free-living red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) on Jersey, Channel Islands. Veterinary Record 2018, 183, 503.
  • Khan A, Gray T, Mill A, Polunin N. Impact of a fishing moratorium on a tuna pole-and-line fishery in eastern Indonesia. Marine Policy 2018, 94, 143–149.
  • Scott DM, Baker R, Charman N, Karlsson H, Yarnell RW, Mill AC, Smith GC, Tolhurst BA. A citizen science based survey method for estimating the density of urban carnivores. PLoS ONE 2018, 13(5), e0197445.
  • Robertson PA, Adriaens T, Lambin X, Mill A, Roy S, Shuttleworth CM, Sutton-Croft M. The large-scale removal of mammalian invasive alien species in Northern Europe. Pest Management Science 2017, 73(2), 273-279.
  • Stephenson F, Polunin NVC, Mill AC, Scott C, Lightfoot P, Fitzsimmons C. Spatial and temporal changes in pot-fishing effort and habitat use. ICES Journal of Marine Science 2017, 74(8), 2201-2212.
  • Stephenson F, Mill AC, Scott C, Stewart GB, Grainger MJ, Polunin NVC, Fitzsimmons C. Socio-economic, technological and environmental drivers of spatio-temporal changes in fishing pressure. Marine Policy 2017, 88, 189-203.
  • Booy O, Mill A, Roy H, Hiley A, Moore N, Robertson P, Baker S, Brazier M, Bue M, Bullock R, Campbell S, Eyre D, Foster J, Hatton-Ellis M, Long J, Macadam C, Morrison-Bell C, Mumford J, Newman J, Parrott D, Payne R, Renals T, Rodgers E, Spencer M, Stebbing P, Sutton-Croft M, Walker K, Ward A, Whittaker S, Wyn G. Risk management to prioritise the eradication of new and emerging invasive non-native species. Biological Invasions 2017, 19(8), 2401-2417.
  • Robertson PA, Mill AC, Rushton SP, McKenzie AJ, Sage RB, Aebischer NJ. Pheasant release in Great Britain: long-term and large-scale changes in the survival of a managed bird. European Journal of Wildlife Research 2017, 63, 1-10.
  • Stephenson F, Mill AC, Scott CL, Polunin NVC, Fitzsimmons C. Experimental potting impacts on common UK reef habitats in areas of high and low fishing pressure. ICES Journal of Marine Science 2017, 74(6), 1648-1659.
  • Nugraha WA, Newman SP, Mill AC, Polunin NVC. Caribbean parrotfish density and size inside and outside marine protected area. AACL Bioflux 2017, 10(5), 1257-1265.
  • Shuttleworth CM, Mill A, van der Waal Z. A preliminary comparison of Magnum 116 body-grip traps with a live capture trap design during the control of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis). International Journal of Pest Management 2017, 63(4), 316-321.
  • Lavides MN, Molina EPV, de la Rosa GE, Mill AC, Rushton SP, Stead SM, Polunin NVC. Patterns of Coral-Reef Finfish Species Disappearances Inferred from Fishers’ Knowledge in Global Epicentre of Marine Shorefish Diversity. PloS ONE 2016, 11(5), e0155752.
  • Everest DJ, Dastjerdi A, Cowan D, Gomm M, Craig M, Shuttleworth CM, McInnes CJ, Dean D, Coulter L, Mill A, Rushton SP, Jackson NL, Litherland P. Adenovirus detected in juvenile squirrels. Veterinary Record 2016, 177(14), 373-374.
  • Robertson PA, Adriaens T, Caizergues A, Cranswick PA, Devos K, Gutiérrez-Expósio A, Henderson I, Hughes B, Mill AC, Smith GC. Towards the European eradication of the North American ruddy duck. Biological Invasions 2015, 17(1), 9-12.
  • Skerritt DJ, Robertson PA, Mill AC, Polunin NVC, Fitzsimmons C. Fine-scale movement, activity patterns and home-ranges of European lobster Homarus gammarus. Marine Ecology Progress Series 2015, 536, 203-219.
  • Dunstan HJ, Mill AC, Stephens S, Yates LM, Thomas SHL. Pregnancy outcome following maternal use of zanamivir or oseltamivir during the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic: a national prospective surveillance study. International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 2014, 121(7), 901-906.
  • Mill AC, Rushton SP, Shirley MDF, Smith GC, Mason P, Brown MA, Budge GE. Clustering, persistence and control of a pollinator brood disease: epidemiology of American foulbrood. Environmental Microbiology 2014, 16(12), 3753-3763.
  • Soto E, McGovern-Hopkins E, KlingerBowen R, Fox BK, Brock J, Antonio N, van der Waal Z, Rushton S, Mill A, Tamaru CS. Prevalence of Francisella noatunensis subsp. orientalis in Cultured Tilapia on the Island of Oahu, Hawaii. Journal of Aquatic Aniimal Health 2013, 25(2), 104-109.
  • Slater MJ, Mgaya YD, Mill AC, Rushton SP, Stead SM. Effect of social and economic drivers on choosing aquaculture as a coastal livelihood. Ocean and Coastal Management 2013, 73, 22-30.
  • Bloomfield HJ, Sweeting CJ, Mill AC, Stead SM, Polunin NVC. No-trawl area impacts: perceptions, compliance and fish abundances. Environmental Conservation 2012, 39(3), 237-247.
  • Mill AC, Rushton SP, Shirley MDF, Murray AWA, Smith GC, Delahay RJ, McDonald RA. Farm-scale risk factors for bovine tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds during the Randomised Badger Culling Trial. Epidemiology and Infection 2012, 140(2), 219-230.
  • Mill AC, Rushton SP, Murrary AWA, Rose M. PAH contamination in Shellfish: Modelling to estimate exposure. Ecotoxicology 2011, 21(2), 393-408.
  • Scarth JP, Clarke A, Hands J, Teale P, Mill AC, Macarthur R, Kay J, De Brabander H. Detection of nandrolone and boldenone abuse in the ovine by GC-MS/MS. Chromatographia 2011, 73(11-12), 1155-1169.
  • Scarth JP, Clarke A, Teale P, Mill AC, Macarthur R, Kay J. Detection of endogenous steroid abuse in cattle: results from population studies in the UK. Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A: Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure & Risk Assessment 2011, 28(1), 44-61.
  • Scarth JP, Clarke A, Hands J, Teale P, Mill AC, Macarthur R, Kay J, De Brabander H. Validation of an Analytical Biomarker Approach for the Detection of Nandrolone Abuse in the Porcine. Chromatographia 2010, 72(3-4), 297-305.
  • Yates L, Pierce M, Stephens S, Mill AC, Spark P, Kurinczuk JJ, Valappil M, Brocklehurst P, Thomas SHL, Knight M. Influenza A/H1N1v in pregnancy: an investigation of the characteristics and management of affected women and the relationship to pregnancy outcomes for mother and infant. Health Technology Assessment 2010, 14(34), 109-182.
  • Mill AC, Sweeting CJ, Barnes C, Al-Habsi SH, MacNeil MA. Mass-spectrometer bias in stable isotope ecology. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods 2008, 6, 34-39.
  • Mill AC, Pinnegar JK, Polunin NVC. Explaining isotope trophic-step fractionation: Why herbivorous fish are different. Functional Ecology 2007, 21(6), 1137-1145.
  • Dulvy NK, Polunin NVC, Mill AC, Graham NAJ. Size structural change in lightly exploited coral reef fish communities: Evidence for weak indirect effects. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2004, 61(3), 466-475.

• Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

  • Robertson PA, Roy S, Mill AC, Shirley M, Adriaens T, Ward AI, Tatayah V, Booy O. Invasive species removals and scale – contrasting island and mainland experience. In: Island Invasives: Scaling up to Meet the Challenge. 2017, Dundee, UK: IUCN.

• Letter

  • Everest DJ, Dastjerdi A, Cowan D, Gomm M, Shuttleworth CM, McInnes CJ, Deane D, Coulter L, Mill A, Rushton SP, Jackson NL, Litherland P. SQPV antibody detection in juvenile squirrels. Veterinary Record 2016, 179(4), 101-102.

• Reviews

  • Stevenson EA, Robertson P, Hickinbotham E, Mair L, Willby NJ, Mill A, Booy O, Witts K, Pattison Z. Synthesising 35 years of invasive non-native species research. Biological Invasions 2023, 25, 2423-2438.
  • Richardson S, Mill AC, Davis D, Jam D, Ward AI. A systematic review of adaptive wildlife management for the control of invasive, non-native mammals, and other human–wildlife conflicts. Mammal Review 2020, 50(2), 147-156.