Modelling, Evidence & Policy - Staff List

I am a Newcastle University Academic Track (NUAcT) Fellow researching global biodiversity conservation and policy. I am based in the Modelling Evidence and Policy research group, within the School of Natural and Environmental Sciences. 

I obtained my PhD from the University of York, where I used citizen science data to quantify and understand changes in the distribution and abundance of British butterflies in response to climate change. I then worked as a post-doctoral researcher at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in Uppsala where I projected the responses of old-forest indicator species of fungi to scenarios of forest management and climate change in Sweden. 

I started at Newcastle University as a post-doctoral researcher working on international species conservation science and policy. I then obtained a position as a Newcastle University Academic Track (NUAcT) research fellow and I am now pursuing independent research in biodiversity conservation and policy. 

I am passionate about creating a positive research culture and inclusive working environment, and I am an active member of the school's EDI committee and the university's Rainbow network. 

Experience

2021 - present

Newcastle University Academic Track (NUAcT) Research Fellow at Newcastle University, UK.

2017 - 2021

Research Associate at Newcastle University, UK.

2014-2016

Post-doctoral researcher at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.

2010-2014

PhD student at the University of York, UK.

Online profiles

My publication record can also be found on Google Scholar and Scopus, and I am on LinkedIn.

My research here at Newcastle focuses on delivering the science required to inform and support the implementation of global biodiversity conservation policy. I collaborate closely with a diverse network of national and international colleagues from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), and I engage directly with policy makers through the Convention on Biological Diversity. I was a member of the IUCN SSC Post-2020 Biodiversity Task Force, which work to provide the scientific basis for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, agreed by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity. The task force has now become the IUCN SSC Global Biodiversity Framework Task Force, and we work to provide scientific and technical expertise on the Framework’s species related targets. Task force members joined the IUCN delegation at a recent scientific meeting of the Convention on Biological Diversity to present and discuss our research with policy makers.

Examples of ongoing and past research projects

Setting targets to reduce species extinction risk

I worked with a team of international researchers, with key partners from IUCN, to develop the Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric. STAR quantifies the potential contribution of threat abatement and habitat restoration activities to reduce global species extinction risk. STAR aims to support implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by allowing countries and other non-state actors, such as NGOs and businesses, to set and measure progress towards science-based targets for species conservation.

In collaboration with partners at the Cambridge Conservation Initiative, we are developing methods to expand the taxonomic coverage of the global STAR metric through a project on freshwater species. I have also worked with partners in Brazil, Norway and South Africa to test the application of STAR to national red list data for plants, in order to support the translation of global policy targets to the national level.

The development and evolution of STAR is very much ongoing. The metric has been integrated into the Integrated Biodiversity Assessment Tool (IBAT) for access by businesses and policy makers. There have also been some exciting scientific applications of the metric, such as its use in calculating national extinction risk footprints, and in an investment strategy to address biodiversity loss from agricultural expansion.

Species extinctions prevented through conservation action

I worked with a team of international researchers and conservationists, led by Dr Rike Bolam in collaboration with BirdLife International, to determine the number of bird and mammal extinctions that conservation action has prevented. This work was essential to provide evidence that conservation action can effectively prevent extinctions, and to quantify progress towards Aichi Biodiversity Target 12. This project received national and international media coverage, including at The Guardian.

PhD students

Jennifer McFarlane (2024-present) "Reconciling evidence with management to mitigate impacts from hunting pressure in tropical forests"

Emily Stevenson (2023-present) "Quantifying species recovery following threat abatement"

Sylvie Tranter (2022-present) "Utilising a marine biodiversity metric to support conservation in Small Island Developing States"

Dr Francesca Ridley (graduated 2024) "Threat maps for conservation planning and policy across spatial scales"

Undergraduate and Masters research project supervision

I am interested in working with students to develop research projects that align with students’ interests in a variety of biodiversity conservation topics, including for example species extinction risk and the IUCN Red List, international trade in endangered species, protected areas, and global policy mechanisms.

Previous student projects have reached scientific publication:

Identifying opportunities for improving the coherence of global agreements for species conservation

Disparity between ecological and political timeframes for species conservation targets

A risk assessment framework to improve the efficiency of CITES

Research collaborations

I am always keen to expand my network and research scope, please get in touch if you are interested in developing a collaboration! 

• Articles

  • McGowan PJK, Hutchinson A, Brooks TM, Elliott W, Hoffmann M, Mair L, McDougall A, Raimondo DC, Butchart SMH. Understanding and achieving species elements in the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework . BioScience 2024, 74(9), 614-623.
  • Turner JA, Starkey M, Dulvy NK, Hawkins F, Mair L, Serckx A, Brooks T, Polidoro B, Butchart SHM, Carpenter K, Epps M, Jabado RW, Macfarlane NBW, Bennun L. Targeting ocean conservation outcomes through threat reduction. npj Ocean Sustainability 2024, 3, 4.
  • Carlin B, Sikka T, Hopkins P, Braunholtz L, Mair L, Pattison Z. Identifying the barriers to inclusion in field-based environmental sciences research. Studies in Higher Education 2024, 49(9), 1652-1665.
  • Ridley FA, Rushton SP, Hickinbotham EJ, Suggitt AJ, McGowan PJK, Mair L. Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk. Conservation Biology 2024, 38(4), e14271.
  • Mair L, Elnahass M, Xiang E, Hawkins F, Siikamaki J, Hillis L, Barrie S, McGowan P. Corporate disclosures need a biodiversity outcome focus and regulatory backing to deliver global conservation goals. Conservation Letters 2024, ePub ahead of Print.
  • Mair L, Amorim E, Bicalho M, Brooks TM, Calfo V, de T Capellao R, Clubbe C, Evju M, Fernandez EP, Ferreira GC, Hawkins F, Jimenez RR, Jordao LSB, Kyrkjeeide MO, Macfarlane NBW, Mattos BC, de Melo PHA, Monteiro LM, Nic Lughadha E, Pougy N, Raimondo DC, Setsaas TH, Shen X, de Siqueira MF, Strassburg BBN, McGowan PJK. Quantifying and mapping species threat abatement opportunities to support national target setting. Conservation Biology 2023, 37(1), e14046.
  • Bolam FC, Ahumada J, Akcakaya HR, Brooks TM, Elliott W, Hoban S, Mair L, Mallon D, McGowan PJK, Raimondo D, Rodriguez JP, Roe D, Seddon MB, Shen X, Stuart SN, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM. Over half of threatened species require targeted recovery actions to avert human-induced extinction. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2023, 21(2), 64-70.
  • Ridley FA, Hickinbotham EJ, Suggitt AJ, McGowan PJK, Mair L. The scope and extent of literature that maps threats to species globally: a systematic map. Environmental Evidence 2022, 11(1), 26.
  • Chaudhary A, Mair L, Strassburg BBN, Brooks TM, Menon V, McGowan PJK. Sub-national assessment of threats to Indian biodiversity and habitat restoration opportunities. Environmental Research Letters 2022, 17(5), 054022.
  • Irwin A, Geschke A, Brooks TM, Siikamaki J, Mair L, Strassburg BBN. Quantifying and categorising national extinction-risk footprints. Scientific Reports 2022, 12(1), 5861.
  • Guerrero-Pineda C, Iacona GD, Mair L, Hawkins F, Siikamaki J, Miller D, Gerber LR. An investment strategy to address biodiversity loss from agricultural expansion. Nature Sustainability 2022, 5, 610-618.
  • Snall T, Trivino M, Mair L, Bengtsson J, Moen J. High rates of short-term dynamics of forest ecosystem services. Nature Sustainability 2021, 4, 951–957.
  • Gant JR, Mair L, McGowan PJK. Fragmented evidence for the contribution of ex situ management to species conservation indicates the need for better reporting. Oryx 2021, 55(4), 573-580.
  • Piipponen-Doyle S, Bolam FC, Mair L. Disparity between ecological and political timeframes for species conservation targets. Biodiversity and Conservation 2021, 30, 1899-1912.
  • Mair L, Byers O, Lees CM, Nguyen D, Rodriguez JP, Smart J, McGowan PJK. Achieving International Species Conservation Targets: Closing the Gap between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches. Conservation and Society 2021, 19(1), 25-33.
  • Williams BA, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM, Ward M, Brooks TM, Butt N, Bolam FC, Stuart SN, Mair L, McGowan PJK, Gregory R, Hilton-Taylor C, Mallon D, Harrison I, Simmonds JS. A robust goal is needed for species in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Conservation Letters 2021, 14(3), e12778.
  • Mair L, Bennun LA, Brooks TM, Butchart SHM, Bolam FC, Burgess ND, Ekstrom JMM, Milner-Gulland EJ, Hoffmann M, Ma K, Macfarlane NBW, Raimondo DC, Rodrigues ASL, Shen X, Strassburg BBN, Beatty CR, Gomez-Creutzberg C, Iribarrem A, Irmadhiany M, Lacerda E, Mattos BC, Parakkasi K, Tognelli MF, Bennett EL, Bryan C, Carbone G, Chaudhary A, Eiselin M, da Fonseca GAB, Galt R, Geschke A, Glew L, Goedicke R, Green JMH, Gregory RD, Hill SLL, Hole DG, Hughes J, Hutton J, Keijzer MPW, Navarro LM, Nic Lughadha E, Plumptre AJ, Puydarrieux P, Possingham HP, Rankovic A, Regan EC, Rondinini C, Schneck JD, Siikamaki J, Sendashonga C, Seutin G, Sinclair S, Skowno AL, Soto-Navarro CA, Stuart SN, Temple HJ, Vallier A, Verones F, Viana LR, Watson J, Bezeng S, Bohm M, Burfield IJ, Clausnitzer V, Clubbe C, Cox NA, Freyhof J, Gerber LR, Hilton-Taylor C, Jenkins R, Joolia A, Joppa LN, Koh LP, Lacher TE, Langhammer PF, Long B, Mallon D, Pacifici M, Polidoro BA, Pollock CM, Rivers MC, Roach NS, Rodriguez JP, Smart J, Young BE, Hawkins F, McGowan PJK. A metric for spatially explicit contributions to science-based species targets. Nature Ecology and Evolution 2021, 5, 836-844.
  • Ridley FA, McGowan PJK, Mair L. The scope and extent of literature that maps threats to species: A systematic map protocol. Environmental Evidence 2020, 9, 23.
  • Nordén J, Harrison PJ, Mair L, Siitonen J, Lundström A, Kindvall O, Snäll T. Occupancy versus colonization–extinction models for projecting population trends at different spatial scales. Ecology and Evolution 2020, 10(6), 3079-3089.
  • Jarvis RM, Borrelle SB, Forsdick NJ, Pérez-Hämmerle K, Dubois NS, Griffin SR, Recalde-Salas A, Buschke F, Rose DC, Archibald CL, Gallo JA, Mair L, Kadykalo AN, Shanahan D, Prohaska BK. Navigating spaces between conservation research and practice: Are we making progress?. Ecological Solutions and Evidence 2020, 1(2), e12028.
  • Kuunal S, Mair L, Pattison Z, McGowan PJK. Identifying opportunities for improving the coherence of global agreements for species conservation. Conservation Science and Practice 2020, 2(12), e294.
  • Bolam FC, Mair L, Angelico M, Brooks TM, Burgman M, Hermes C, Hoffmann M, Martin RW, McGowan PJK, Rodrigues ASL, Rondinini C, Westrip JRS, Wheatley H, Bedolla Guzman Y, Calzada J, Child MF, Cranswick PA, Dickman CR, Fessl B, Fisher DO, Garnett ST, Groombridge JJ, Johnson CN, Kennerley RJ, King SRB, Lamoreux JF, Lees AC, Lens L, Mahood SP, Mallon DP, Meijaard E, Mendez Sanchez F, Percequillo AR, Regan TJ, Renjifo LM, Rivers MC, Roach NS, Roxburgh L, Safford RJ, Salaman PS, Squires T, Vazquez Dominguez E, Visconti P, Woinarski JCZ, Young RP, Butchart SHM. How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?. Conservation Letters 2020, 14(1), e12762.
  • Cowan D, van der Waal Z, Pidcock S, Gomm M, Stephens N, Brash M, White PCL, Mair L, Mill A. Adaptive management of an iconic invasive goat Capra hircus population. Mammal Review 2020, 50(2), 180-186.
  • McGowan PJK, Mair L, Symes A, Westrip JRS, Wheatley H, Brook S, Burton J, King S, McShea WJ, Moehlman PD, Smith AT, Wheeler JC, Butchart SHM. Tracking trends in the extinction risk of wild relatives of domesticated species to assess progress against global biodiversity targets. Conservation Letters 2019, 12(1), e12588.
  • Mair L, Ridley FA, Fleming LV, McGowan PJK. A risk assessment framework to improve the efficiency of CITES. Biological Conservation 2019, 239, 108260.
  • Mair L, Mill AC, Robertson PA, Rushton SP, Shirley MDF, Rodriguez JP, McGowan PJK. The contribution of scientific research to conservation planning. Biological Conservation 2018, 223, 82-96.
  • Mair L, Jönsson M, Räty M, Bärring L, Strandberg G, Lämås T, Snäll T. Land use changes could modify future negative effects of climate change on old‐growth forest indicator species. Diversity and Distributions 2018, 24(10), 1416–1425.
  • Bradter U, Mair L, Jönsson M, Knape J, Singer A, Snäll T. Can opportunistically‐collected Citizen Science data fill a data gap for habitat suitability models of less common species?. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2018, 9(7), 1667-1678.
  • Löbel S, Mair L, Lönnell N, Schröder B, Snäll T. Biological traits explain bryophyte species distributions and responses to forest fragmentation and climatic variation. Journal of Ecology 2018, 106(4), 1700-1713.
  • Belinchón R, Harrison PJ, Mair L, Várkonyi G, Snäll T. Local epiphyte establishment and future metapopulation dynamics in landscapes with different spatiotemporal properties. Ecology 2017, 98(3), 741-750.
  • Mair L, Harrison PJ, Räty M, Bärring L, Strandberg G, Snäll T. Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change. Ecological Applications 2017, 27(5), 1485–1497.
  • Mair L, Harrison PJ, Jonsson M, Lobel S, Norden J, Siitonen J, Lamas T, Lundstrom A, Snall T. Evaluating citizen science data for forecasting species responses to national forest management. Ecology and Evolution 2017, 7(1), 368-378.
  • Mair L, Ruete A. Explaining Spatial Variation in the Recording Effort of Citizen Science Data across Multiple Taxa. PLOS One 2016, 11(1), e0147796.
  • Mair L, Thomas CD, Franco AMA, Hill JK. Quantifying the activity levels and behavioural responses of butterfly species to habitat boundaries. Ecological Entomology 2015, 40(6), 823-828.
  • Mair L, Hill JK, Fox R, Botham M, Brereton T, Thomas CD. Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species' responses to climate change. Nature Climate Change 2014, 4, 127-131.
  • Mair L, Thomas CD, Anderson BJ, Fox R, Botham M, Hill JK. Temporal variation in responses of species to four decades of climate warming. Global Change Biology 2012, 18, 2439-2447.

• Review

  • Stevenson EA, Robertson P, Hickinbotham E, Mair L, Willby NJ, Mill A, Booy O, Witts K, Pattison Z. Synthesising 35 years of invasive non-native species research. Biological Invasions 2023, 25, 2423-2438.