MAS3921 : Extreme Value Theory
- Offered for Year: 2025/26
- Module Leader(s): Dr Vianey Palacios Ramirez
- Owning School: Mathematics, Statistics and Physics
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
Semesters
Your programme is made up of credits, the total differs on programme to programme.
| Semester 2 Credit Value: | 10 |
| ECTS Credits: | 5.0 |
| European Credit Transfer System | |
Aims
This module introduces a technique which performs a seemingly impossible task: to predict the probability of events that are more extreme than any that have happened before. Although these methods have been around for over 70 years, their application in complex real-life problems has only recently been developed. For example, the governmental coastal flood defence division employs statisticians using these methods to calculate the required height of sea-walls to prevent flooding. Extreme value theory is also used to help engineers decide how strong to build bridges or oil rigs and to model excessively high pollution levels.
Outline Of Syllabus
Extremal Types Theorem, the Generalised Extreme Value distribution (GEV), likelihood and estimation for the GEV, its uses and limitations. Alternative extreme value characterisations: the distribution of extreme r-order statistics; the Generalised Pareto Distribution. Application to real problems: temporal dependence and non-stationarity in data on extremes. Issues involved in extreme value modelling of environmental and other data. Multivariate extremes: dependence structures and practical applications.
Students will acquire skills in analysing relevant statistical models for data on extremes both from a theoretical and data analytic viewpoint. Students will appreciate the practical application of these methods in areas such as climate science, meteorology and engineering.
Teaching Methods
Teaching Activities
| Category | Activity | Number | Length | Student Hours | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 2 | 1:00 | 2:00 | Revision Lectures |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 20 | 1:00 | 20:00 | Formal Lectures |
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 2 | 4:00 | 8:00 | Completion of in-course assessments |
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 1 | 2:00 | 2:00 | Unseen exam |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 5 | 1:00 | 5:00 | Problem Classes |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Practical | 4 | 1:00 | 4:00 | Computer Practicals |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 13 | 1:00 | 13:00 | Revision for unseen exam |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 22 | 1:00 | 22:00 | Preparation time for lectures |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 21 | 1:00 | 21:00 | Background reading on lectured content |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 2 | 1:30 | 3:00 | Review of coursework |
| Total | 100:00 |
Jointly Taught With
| Code | Title |
|---|---|
| MAS8610 | Extreme Value Theory with Advanced Topics |
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
Lectures are used for the delivery of theory and explanation of methods, illustrated with examples, and for giving general feedback on marked work. Problem classes are used to help develop the students’ abilities at applying the theory to solving problems.
The teaching methods are appropriate to allow students to develop a wide range of skills. From understanding basic concepts and facts to higher-order thinking.
Assessment Methods
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
Exams
| Description | Length | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Written Examination | 120 | 2 | A | 80 | 2 hour written exam, comprising a Section A and a Section B. |
Exam Pairings
| Module Code | Module Title | Semester | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Value Theory with Advanced Topics | 2 | N/A |
Other Assessment
| Description | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prob solv exercises | 2 | M | 20 | Coursework 2. Up to 6-page typeset report based upon a set assignment comprising open-ended questions. |
Formative Assessments
Formative Assessment is an assessment which develops your skills in being assessed, allows for you to receive feedback, and prepares you for being assessed. However, it does not count to your final mark.
| Description | Semester | When Set | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prob solv exercises | 2 | M | Coursework 1. 40-minute class test, conducted during one of the timetabled one-hour lecture slots. |
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
A substantial formal unseen examination is appropriate for the assessment of the material in this module. The format of the examination will enable students to reliably demonstrate their own knowledge, understanding and application of learning outcomes.
Examination problems may require a synthesis of concepts and strategies from different sections, while they may have more than one way for solution. The examination time allows the students to test different strategies, work out examples and gather evidence for deciding on an effective strategy, while carefully articulating their ideas and explicitly citing the theory they are using.
The coursework assignments allow the students to develop their problem-solving techniques, to practise the methods learnt in the module, to assess their progress and to receive feedback; the summative assessment has a secondary formative purpose as well as its primary summative purpose.
Reading Lists
Timetable
- Timetable Website: www.ncl.ac.uk/timetable/
- MAS3921's Timetable