MAS8611 : Sports Modelling with Advanced Topics
- Offered for Year: 2025/26
- Module Leader(s): Dr Pete Philipson
- Owning School: Mathematics, Statistics and Physics
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
Semesters
Your programme is made up of credits, the total differs on programme to programme.
| Semester 2 Credit Value: | 10 |
| ECTS Credits: | 5.0 |
| European Credit Transfer System | |
Aims
To develop a broader knowledge of how statistical modelling can be applied to data arising from sport. To acquire skills in analysing relevant statistical models for both outcomes and scores of contests involving two or more competitors, both through theoretical and data analysis. To acquire skills in ranking competitors and predicting the outcomes of future contests.
Outline Of Syllabus
Methods for pairwise comparisons based on outcomes (Bradley-Terry model), extensions to handling ties (Davidson model) and home advantage; methods for multiple comparisons (Plackett-Luce model). Poisson processes for score-based data; Dixon-Coles model. General linear model for score-based data. Prediction and forecasting; Elo-type ratings systems based on stochastic gradient methods. Applications to sports such as tennis, football and motor racing will be used throughout. Additional advanced topics such as extended count-data models incorporating zero-inflation and/or overdispersion will also be considered.
Teaching Methods
Teaching Activities
| Category | Activity | Number | Length | Student Hours | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 1 | 2:00 | 2:00 | Unseen exam |
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 2 | 4:00 | 8:00 | Completion of in course assessments |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 5 | 1:00 | 5:00 | Problem Classes |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 2 | 1:00 | 2:00 | Revision Lectures |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 20 | 1:00 | 20:00 | Formal Lectures |
| Guided Independent Study | Directed research and reading | 15 | 1:00 | 15:00 | Directed reading of advanced topic(s) |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 10 | 1:00 | 10:00 | Background reading on lectured content |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 2 | 1:30 | 3:00 | Review of coursework |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 13 | 1:00 | 13:00 | Revision for unseen exam |
| Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 22 | 1:00 | 22:00 | Preparation time for lectures |
| Total | 100:00 |
Jointly Taught With
| Code | Title |
|---|---|
| MAS3922 | Sports Modelling |
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
Lectures are used for the delivery of theory and explanation of methods, illustrated with examples, and for giving general feedback on marked work. Problem classes are used to help develop the students’ abilities at applying the theory to solving problems. In addition, directed research and reading of an advanced topic is used to develop the students’ ability to learn independently.
The teaching methods are appropriate to allow students to develop a wide range of skills. From understanding basic concepts and facts to higher-order thinking.
Assessment Methods
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
Exams
| Description | Length | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Written Examination | 120 | 2 | A | 80 | 2 hour written exam, comprising a Section A and a Section B. |
Exam Pairings
| Module Code | Module Title | Semester | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | N/A |
Other Assessment
| Description | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prob solv exercises | 2 | M | 20 | Coursework 2. Up to 6 page typeset report based upon a set assignment comprising open-ended questions. |
Formative Assessments
Formative Assessment is an assessment which develops your skills in being assessed, allows for you to receive feedback, and prepares you for being assessed. However, it does not count to your final mark.
| Description | Semester | When Set | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prob solv exercises | 2 | M | Coursework 1. 40 minute class test, conducted during one of the timetabled one hour lecture slots. |
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
A substantial formal unseen examination is appropriate for the assessment of the material in this module. The format of the examination will enable students to reliably demonstrate their own knowledge, understanding and application of learning outcomes.
Examination problems may require a synthesis of concepts and strategies from different sections, while they may have more than one way for solution. The examination time allows the students to test different strategies, work out examples and gather evidence for deciding on an effective strategy, while carefully articulating their ideas and explicitly citing the theory they are using.
The coursework assignments allow the students to develop their problem solving techniques, to practise the methods learnt in the module, to assess their progress and to receive feedback; the summative assessment has a secondary formative purpose as well as its primary summative purpose.
Reading Lists
Timetable
- Timetable Website: www.ncl.ac.uk/timetable/
- MAS8611's Timetable